Alternative Growth Scenarios

The Region 2050 alternative growth scenarios present three different ways growth can be concentrated and distributed at the regional level and provide a basis for an evaluation and public feedback. The three scenarios include Compact Urban Growth, Satellite Communities, and Rural Growth.

A detailed description of the scenarios and the assumptions used to develop them are contained in the report: Alternative Regional Growth Scenarios, October 9, 2003. Wall-size computerized maps of the scenarios are available for viewing at Lane Council of Governments, 99 East Broadway, Suite 400, Eugene, Oregon 97401.

The graphic maps below show the generalized land uses and developed areas in the three scenarios.

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS MAPS
Compact Urban Growth Scenario Map (833kb PDF )
Satellite Communities Scenario Map (837kb PDF )
Rural Growth Scenario Map (2.23mb PDF )

The tables below show the distribution of population and employment, densities, and land expansion areas in the three scenarios.

ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS TABLES
Three Alternative Scenarios: 2050 Population and Housing Densities (10kb PDF )
Three Alternative Scenarios: 2050 Employment and Employment Densities (9kb PDF )
Three Alternative Scenarios: 2050 UGBs and Growth Center Acres (10kb PDF )

Compact Urban Growth Scenario
Satellite Communities Scenario
Rural Growth Scenario
What are Alternative Growth Scenarios?
Where did the Scenarios Come From?
How are the Scenarios Evaluated?
Completed Scenario Evaluations

COMPACT URBAN GROWTH SCENARIO

In the Compact Urban Growth Scenario, the region would develop at the highest concentration practical, given anticipated market forces. The regional distribution of growth is similar to today, with most of the growth occurring in the metro cities. Development is more compact than planned today and growth is mostly concentrated at higher housing and employment densities in Eugene and Springfield, including UGB expansion areas. The rural communities of Goshen, Pleasant Hill, and Alvadore become part of the metro UGB in this scenario and the rest of the rural area outside UGBs stays pretty much the same as it is today.

SATELLITE COMMUNITIES SCENARIO

In the Satellite Communities Scenario, a much greater share of the housing and employment growth is distributed among the small cities. Similar to today, the small cities develop at small town housing and employment densities which are lower than Eugene and Springfield . The three rural communities in closest proximity to the metropolitan area - Alvadore, Goshen, and Pleasant Hill - become “growth centers” because they grow to a size and have housing densities similar to small cities.

RURAL GROWTH SCENARIO

In the Rural Growth Scenario, growth is distributed throughout the region on rural residential lands inside rural communities – on one acre lots, and outside rural communities – on two acre lots. Houses are also built on two acre lots on farm and forest lands that are of lower quality and/or less suitable for farm or forest use. The population of the rural area more than doubles in this scenario. There are also more jobs in the rural area and in the metro cities where these rural residents will access goods, services, and work.

WHAT ARE ALTERNATIVE GROWTH SCENARIOS?

Alternative growth scenarios are a tool to facilitate agreement about the use of land resources at a regional level. The scenarios provide critical information for local officials to help them agree on a Preferred Growth Scenario that best meets the region’s development needs while preserving important natural resources and environmental quality over the next 50 years. Together with the results of the public outreach on the scenarios, the evaluation of the scenarios in this phase of Region 2050 will inform the development of a Preferred Growth Scenario and regional goals, objectives, and actions for the agreed-upon 2050 Regional Growth Management Strategy.  

The Region 2050 alternative growth scenarios present three different ways growth can be concentrated and distributed at the regional level and provide a basis for an evaluation and public feedback. The final or “preferred” growth scenario that will be incorporated into the Regional Growth Management Strategy will most likely be a hybrid scenario that contains elements of all three of these alternatives.  

WHERE DID THE SCENARIOS COME FROM?

In March, 2003, experts in the following seven fields worked in small groups to devise their vision for the region from the perspective of their area of expertise: land use, housing, the economy, transportation, natural resources, community facilities and services, and education. This resulted in seven “regional vision maps.” Staff worked with the RTAC and Policy Board to identify the common elements among these seven maps and to highlight unique elements in three alternative growth scenarios. The Regional Policy Advisory Board unanimously approved these scenarios for evaluation and public outreach on October 9, 2003 . Please see the Regional Growth Scenarios Workshop Report, April 29, 2003 for more information.

HOW ARE THE SCENARIOS EVALUATED?

The evaluation of these three alternative regional growth scenarios is based on criteria developed from Regional Goals and Objectives unanimously approved by the Regional Policy Advisory Board in the following seven quality of life categories:

• Land Use
• Housing
• Economy
• Environment
• Public Facilities and Services
• Transportation
• Education

COMPLETED SCENARIO EVALUATIONS

Land Use and Development:
Promote land use and development patterns that sustain and improve quality of life in the Southern Willamette Valley, maintain each community’s identity, facilitate economic development, and conserve and manage natural resources.

Housing:
Seek to ensure that each community has an adequate variety of housing types to meet the needs of residents.  
Land Use and Housing (32kb PDF )

Economy:
Promote a diverse regional economy in the Southern Willamette Valley that facilitates access to quality employment, goods, and services throughout the region, while recognizing the unique advantages of each community.  

Natural Resources:
Protect, restore, manage, and enhance important natural resources and open spaces, and maintain high quality air, water, and land resources in the Southern Willamette Valley.
Environmental Resource Protection in the Southern Willamette Valley (1.91Mb PDF )

Community Facilities and Services:
Develop a regional approach to facilitate the efficient provision of infrastructure and community services in the Southern Willamette Valley in conformance with the desires of each utility and district.
Water Supply and Facilities (237kb PDF )
Electric and Solid Waste Facilities and Services (26kb PDF )
Wastewater Facilities and Services (76kb PDF )

Transportation:
Develop and maintain transportation systems in the region while improving transportation choice and air and water quality.

Education:
Develop a regional strategy to improve and maintain access to high quality educational services throughout the region.
Education (136kb PDF )

For more information on Region 2050, contact: Carol Heinkel, Project Manager, at (541) 682-4107

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