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Base
Case Scenarios
The theme for these
scenarios is yesterday and today. Their intent is
to determine a possible future if we develop as we have
in past—the
Yesterday Scenario—and
a possible future with higher densities, more mixed uses
and other changes—the Today Scenario.
The Yesterday scenario
paints a picture of the region in the year 2050 if we assume historic
development and growth patterns continue. What if, over the next 50
years, housing develops as planned on existing maps and at housing
densities that continue past trends? What if we have the same type
of jobs at the same employment densities as today?
UGB expansions would
occur primarily in the metro area, which would expand north to Junction
City, south to Creswell and Pleasant Hill, and in the south hills of
Eugene. Wall-size maps of these scenarios can be seen at the offices
of Lane County and the ten cities.
The Today Scenario
paints a picture of the region in the year 2050 if we assume the region
will develop at higher densities and with more mixed uses and other
changes. What if, over the next 50 years, nodal development is fully
implemented in the metropolitan cities and Springfield has more mixed
uses, accessory dwellings, and a transition zone that increases single-family
densities adjacent to more intense uses? And what if the Bus Rapid
Transit (BRT) is fully operational as planned?
UGB expansions would
still occur in the metropolitan cities, but much less than in the Yesterday
Scenario. While the Eugene-Springfield UGB expands less, some of the
small cities, such as Veneta and Junction City, expand more. The red
dotted line shows the Yesterday expansion areas that are not present
in the Today Scenario.
What
can we learn from these Scenarios?
By examining the
effects of these two scenarios, we start to make connections that help
inform our choices about alternatives and, eventually, a vision or
strategy. We begin to understand the tradeoffs we face if we want to
do things differently in the future.
Click
on the images below to view a full-sized version of the poster
in PDF* format.
*PDF files require Acrobat
Reader. Download Reader by clicking the above link or
image.
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